SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE "IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC RELATIONS OF THE US - CHINA - RUSSIA ON THE WORLD ECONOMY AND VIETNAM'S ECONOMY"

9/5/2022 6:24:25 PM

On the morning of April 20, 2022, the Asia-Pacific Economic Center and the Vietnam Institute of Economics coordinated to organize a workshop with the theme "Impacts of economic relations between the US and China - Russia to the world economy and Vietnam's economy". The seminar is within the framework of the National Project: "Economic relations of the US - China - Russia in the new context: impact, influence and countermeasures of Vietnam".

Attending the Conference, on the guest side, were Dr. Dang Xuan Thanh, Vice President of Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences; Assoc.Prof.Dr.Sc. Vo Dai Luoc - Chairman of the Management Council of the Asia-Pacific Economic Center; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Le Bo Linh, former Deputy Secretary General of the National Assembly, former Deputy Chairman of the Office of the National Assembly; GS. Dr. Hoang Khac Nam, Dean of Faculty of International Studies, University of Social Sciences and Humanities; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen An Ha - Institute of European Studies; Assoc.Prof.Dr. Cu Chi Loi – Editor-in-Chief of America Today Magazine, Institute of American Studies; Dr. Hoang The Anh – Deputy Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics; Mr. Bui Ngoc Son - Economic expert. On the side of the Vietnam Institute of Economics, there was Assoc.Prof.Dr. Bui Quang Tuan - Director, Dr. Le Xuan Sang – Deputy Director; Dr. Pham Anh Tuan – Vice President and staff of the Institute. In addition, the workshop was attended by delegates from a number of research institutions and other organizations.

(Overview of the Conference)

After the opening remarks by Dr. Pham Anh Tuan, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Vo Dai Luoc gave a speech to give a brief overview of the world economic context and the current situation of the world economic order. Assoc.Prof.Dr.Sc. Vo Dai Luoc also commented that the confrontation trend of countries such as the US, China, Russia and Ukraine in recent years has been increasing, the relationship between these countries determines the movement of the World Economy; if the cooperation relationship between countries is more developed, the world economy will develop more and more, conversely if the cooperation relationship is in conflict, the world economy will also decline. This has a great impact on the development of the World Economy in general and Vietnam's economy in particular, so in this context, Vietnam needs to have appropriate solutions and take advantage of opportunities for development.

(Dr.Dr. Vo Dai Luoc delivered the keynote speech of the Conference)

Next, the delegates listened to a presentation on "Changes of the world economic order after the Russia-Ukraine crisis" by expert Bui Ngoc Son. According to expert Bui Ngoc Son, the current World Economic Order (also known as the Bretton Woods - BW order) is threatened by the rise of China since 2008; The policies of the Trump administration and later the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic caused economic decay from China; The Russian-Ukrainian war is only a contributing factor to further accelerate this process. The disaggregated channels include supply chains, capital flows, trade and employment flows, and technology; The World Economic Order will be more stable with a return to the leadership of the United States and the West; There will be reforms to prevent similar challenges in the future. Finally, expert Bui Ngoc Son gave some implications for Vietnam in maintaining relations with major countries including China, Russia, the US and Western countries.

(Mr. Bui Ngoc Son presented at the Workshop)

The presentation "The impact of the movement of economic relations between Russia and the US in the new context to the world economy and Vietnam's economy" presented by Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen An Ha at the seminar reviewed the economic relationship. Russian-American economy over the past 10 years. Due to the increasing challenges from traditional and non-traditional security along with the impact of the industrial revolution 4.0 and the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia-US relations have returned to the cold war era. From the economic characteristics between Russia and the US, the paper presents the characteristics as well as the nature of this relationship. Finally, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen An Ha identified the movement trend of Russia-US economic relations in the coming period as well as forecast some long-term impacts of this relationship on the world and Vietnam.

(Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen An Ha presented at the Workshop)

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Cu Chi Loi presented a presentation with the topic "The impact of the movement of economic relations between the US and China in the new context on the world economy and the economy of Vietnam". Accordingly, world trade was strongly affected by strategic competition and geopolitical competition, especially when the US-China trade war was started by the US in early 2018, when the US started. imposed high tariffs on many Chinese goods, and the scale of Chinese goods subject to high tariffs has continuously increased throughout the period of 2018-2019, and China has also responded by imposing high taxes on goods. of America. The US-China trade agreement was signed in early 2020 to avoid aggravating trade conflicts on a larger scale. In this context, apart from challenges such as declining demand for goods, goods trade deficit, tax evasion… Vietnam also has many opportunities in terms of trade and investment attraction, but Vietnam needs appropriate solutions to take advantage of this opportunity to develop.

The lecture "The impact of China-Russia economic relations movement in the new context on the world economy and Vietnam's economy" by Dr. Hoang The Anh showed that China - Russia economic relations have been and are moving closer together in the context that the US and the West have repeatedly introduced economic sanctions against Russia after Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and armed conflict between Russia and Russia. Ukraine from the end of February 2022 to present The world trend is divided into two poles: one pole is dominated by the US and the West, the other is dominated by China and Russia. determining the impact of the relationship between China and Russia on world trade in goods, international investment, and the impact of the renminbi (NDT) and ruble in payments is not much. The trend of using RMB and ruble in international payments has increased and the trend of increasing China-Russia energy cooperation is having great impacts on the world economy, even in the future. to dominate the political life of the world. For the Vietnamese economy, the Sino-Russian economic relationship also has many-dimensional impacts on the Vietnamese economy such as the impact on imports and exports to the Russian and Chinese markets; The impact on energy cooperation with these two countries and Vietnam-Russia relations is also facing difficulties because of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict.

(Dr. Hoang The Anh presented at the Workshop)

In the comment section, Dr. Le Xuan Sang said that the movement and mutual interaction between the US - China - Russia has had a great impact on the world economic trend as well as the Vietnamese economy. First of all, Dr. Le Xuan Sang mentioned the international trend of strengthening the renminbi and reducing the role of the international currency USD; the second trend is to accelerate the process of reducing the use of petro-dollar (especially the payment of Rub, RMB, Rupee and local currency, along with the trend of green consumption, using electric vehicles); third, due to the embargo, Russia's ability to redirect trade flows (energy, food) from the EU to Asia; Finally, the magnitude of the impact of the sanctions on Russia is quite large in public terms, however, in reality, the negative effect is significantly reduced due to the underground trading of fuels, customs transcoding and other related services. another factor. Besides, Dr. Le Xuan Sang also mentioned a number of issues related to the US - China, US - Russia, China - Russia relationship pairs and their impact on Vietnam's economy.

(Dr. Le Xuan Sang speaking at the Workshop)

In the next comment section, Dr. Vu Quoc Huy said that relations between countries are determined by four factors (i) conflict; (ii) cooperation; (iii) the agreement; (iv) commitment. The clash of civilizations takes place on two levels, at the micro level, nations between civilizations fight each other, often violently, for control of each other; At the macro level, countries in different civilizations compete for relative military and economic power, while also fighting for control of international organizations and third parties, and competing for power. compete to promote their particular religious and political values. From the above theory, ideas for conflict resolution will be formed. Dr. Vu Quoc Huy also commented that at present, the world is in transition and in the next 8-10 years, the world economic order will have many changes, possibly forming a new world order.

(Dr. Vu Quoc Huy speaks at the workshop)

Sharing his views, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Huy Hoang said that the world economic order after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will form a new economic situation. The new order is evolving in two directions (i) If the West succeeds in breaking the link between Russia and China, the world will return to a unipolar order dominated by the US and the West; (ii) If the West fails, the world will split into two poles and China will take the leading role. Regardless of which direction the new world order takes place, it will have a significant impact on Vietnam.

(Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Huy Hoang speaking at the Workshop)

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Le Bo Linh posed a provocative question: "So now the three countries China - Russia - America can become a triangle or not?" and “In the new order, which country will take the lead?” Besides, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Le Bo Linh mentioned the technology factor. Assoc.Prof.Dr said that "who" governs the data (cryptocurrency, high technology, ...) will govern the business order. world economy and countries in the future.

(Assoc. Prof. Dr. Le Bo Linh speaking at the Workshop)

According to Dr. Dang Xuan Thanh had 4 major crises of the World Economic Order, including: structural crisis; geopolitical crisis; climate crisis and global pandemic crisis. This shows that the World Economic Order is at a turning point, in the transitional and transitional stage, risks are increasing and Vietnam needs to take appropriate adaptation measures as well as allocate resources to prevent risks. 

(Dr. Dang Xuan Thanh speaking at the Workshop)

Assoc.Prof.Dr.Sc. Vo Dai Luoc has the view that the world political order and economic security is facing many shortcomings that require change. According to many scholars, the solution to this change is to wage war. Because when war breaks out, countries will increase investment in defense, which means increased investment in new technology and only new technology can solve problems. In addition, Assoc.Prof.Dr.Sc. Vo Dai Luoc has proposed that the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences should have a research program on international issues focusing on urgent issues that are oriented to the future.

In the closing part, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Bui Quang Tuan summarizes some points as follows (i) In the current context, it is necessary to focus on the trend of green recovery and thinking about resilience; (ii) The defense - security - politics aspect should be given more importance; (iii) The impact of recent events has greatly affected the World Economy, most evident in the channels of trade, investment, finance, prices, and inflation; (iv) Challenges for Vietnam in the new context; (v) Trends in technology, digital transformation in the current order. Finally, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Bui Quang Tuan sincerely thanked the delegates for taking the time to attend and give comments to the Workshop.

The conference was a great success.