SCIENTIFIC DISCUSSION "IMPACTS OF RUSSIA-UCRAINA CONFLICTS ON THE WORLD AND VIETNAM ECONOMY: SOME INITIAL ASSESSMENTS"
9/7/2022 4:21:14 PM
On the morning of April 27, 2022, the Vietnam Economic Institute held a scientific seminar with the theme "The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the world situation and Vietnam's economy: Some initial assessments ". Co-chairing the discussion was Dr. Dang Xuan Thanh - Vice President of Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences and Assoc. Bui Quang Tuan - Director of the Vietnam Institute of Economics.
The seminar was attended by Mr. Pham Quang Vinh - Former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Vietnam to the United States; Dr. Ngo Duc Manh – Former Vice Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Assembly, Former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Vietnam to the Russian Federation; Assoc.Prof.Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan - Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies, Diplomatic Academy, Former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Vietnam in Ukraine; Dr. Le Xuan Sang - Deputy Director of the Vietnam Institute of Economics; Assoc.Prof.Dr. Le Bo Linh – Former Vice Chairman of the National Assembly's Committee on Science, Technology and Environment; Colonel Le The Mau - Former Head of Military Science Information Department, Institute of Defense Strategy. In addition, the seminar also had the presence of scientists from specialized research institutes, universities and staff of the Vietnam Institute of Economics.
After the statement of reasons and introduction of delegates by Mr. Tran Xuan Phuong - Head of Events and Communication Department of Vietnam Institute of Economics, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Bui Quang Tuan in his opening speech mentioned: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a major conflict of global scale, it slows down the globalization process and may give rise to new alliances. The seminar provides multi-dimensional analysis and assessment of the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the world economic situation and Vietnam's economy to serve research and policy advice.
(Mr. Tran Xuan Phuong announced the reason and introduced delegates at the seminar)
(Assoc.Prof.Dr. Bui Quang Tuan speaking at the opening of the seminar)
At the beginning of the session of presentations, Mr. Pham Quang Vinh presented the presentation "US strategy from the Russia-Ukraine conflict" with four main contents: overview of the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, national security strategy new US alliance and the US response to Russia's military attack on Ukraine, economic sanctions and its consequences, strategic projections of the US from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to Pham Quang Vinh, the United States has reacted strongly to Russia's military attack on Ukraine by applying unprecedented sanctions on finance, transportation, military, technology, and oil imports. gas to Russia. By analyzing the reactions of countries to this sanctions and its consequences, the speaker made a forecast (i) The United States considers preventing Russia in this conflict as preventing the disruption of the world order. ; (ii) The United States continues to prioritize competing with China – considered its top competitor – during this crisis.
(Dr. Pham Quang Vinh presented at the seminar)
Dr. Ngo Duc Manh presented the lecture "The Russian-Ukrainian conflict", according to the speaker, the main cause of this conflict was that Ukraine's accession to NATO crossed the "red line" set by Russia and in fact this is the war/conflict between Russia and the West that Ukraine becomes the focus. Accordingly, the embargoes and sanctions imposed by the West caused great disturbances to the world financial, oil and gas markets and food; increased inflation and reduced economic growth worldwide. Faced with Western sanctions, Russia has deployed countermeasures. Vietnam is also heavily affected by this conflict, so some policy recommendations are made: (i) Finding new markets to replace imports from Russia, Ukraine; (ii) Promote local currency payments with Russia; (iii) Take advantage of opportunities from FTAs; (iv) Research the laws to avoid sanctions under CAATSA 2017.
(Dr. Ngo Duc Manh presented at the seminar)
General introduction about Europe and Ukraine, overview of economic relations between Ukraine - EU before and after the special military campaign as well as the impact of the campaign on Ukraine - EU economic relations was given by Assoc.Prof.Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan detailed in his presentation "Prospects of economic relations between Ukraine and Europe from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict". Economic relations between Ukraine and the EU began after the declaration of independence of Ukraine in 1991. Since then, Ukraine and the EU have signed many association agreements and partnerships, especially after the 2014 AAEUUA agreement. The EU has become Ukraine's largest trading partner. Overall, exports from the EU to Ukraine are larger than imports except for raw materials and energy, and the EU has also mobilized a financial support package worth more than 17 billion euros for Ukraine in the form of concessional loans. When the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, it caused scarcity and pushed up the prices of grains and minerals - commodities in which Ukraine has a large market share. Besides, about ODA from other countries. In addition, the source of ODA from other countries (USA, Germany, France, UK) to Ukraine is mainly military aid. Therefore, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan said that the Russia-Ukraine crisis is actually a crisis between Russia and NATO. provides Ukraine mainly with military aid. Therefore, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan said that the Russia-Ukraine crisis is actually a crisis between Russia and NATO.
(Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan presented at the seminar)
Following the program, Dr. Le Xuan Sang presented the presentation "Economic impact of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict: some initial assessments and policy implications". From the assessment of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict on the world economy and Vietnam's economy, the author makes a few policy suggestions for Vietnam including (i) The government's maximum support Vietnamese enterprises and overseas Vietnamese overcome difficulties from negative impacts; (ii) Apply a safer payment method to avoid risks in foreign transactions; (iii) Make the most of incentives in FTAs to diversify markets; (iv) Assess the impact of Russian sanctions on related projects for timely solutions; (v) Research on domestic payment channels with Russia; (vi) Research the possibility of doing business in rubles, forming a form of barter with Russia to limit money transfers through banks.
(Dr. Le Xuan Sang presented at the seminar)
During the commenting and discussion session, Assoc.Prof.Dr. Le Bo Linh gives information on the nature, scale and prospects of this conflict. According to Assoc.Prof.Dr. Le Bo Linh this is not just a bilateral conflict but a global event. It can be said that the conflict pushes the world and Europe in particular to a situation of long-term instability and can change the world's situation. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had many impacts on the world economy (growth, inflation, migration, globalization, ...) as well as Vietnam's economy. Faced with such a context, first of all, Vietnam needs to analyze and re-evaluate the forecast of the world context and pay more attention to promoting regional cooperation.
(Assoc. Prof. Dr. Le Bo Linh speaking at the seminar)
Colonel Le The Mau discussed controversial issues in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (i) Identifying the nature of the war; (ii) what the US and Russia want from Ukraine; (iii) Why did Russia set the goal of de-fascism in Ukraine; (iv) Impact of the war on Vietnam. Besides, the colonel said that this war is actually a war between two world orders (unipolar order led by the US and multipolar order from Russia's point of view).
(Colonel Le The Mau speaks at the seminar)
Economic expert Bui Ngoc Son said that this war is a geopolitical and economic war, accelerating the decay process in technology, trade, capital, supply chain, etc. Mr. Bui Ngoc Son also has a Vietnamese point of view. The South needs to have countermeasures to deal with the current situation.
(Expert Bui Ngoc Son speaks at the seminar)
According to Assoc. Dr. Nguyen Duy Dung - Former Director of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, perhaps there has never been such a comprehensive war from economics, politics, culture, human rights, etc. Importantly, how to do it now? to properly identify the current world trend and context for consulting research.
(Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Duy Dung speaking at the seminar)
Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Manh - Institute of American Studies shared some information and personal views on the aspect of international finance, world order, and forecasts about the conflict between Russia - Ukraine at the seminar.
(Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Manh speaking at the seminar)
In the closing part, Dr. Dang Xuan Thanh summarizes some key points of the seminar (i) to analyze, assess and comment on the Russia-Ukraine crisis, thereby proposing and advising the Party and State on Vietnam's countermeasures. ; (ii) this crisis is a geopolitical shock whose impact is global; (iii) Vietnam is facing a situation full of disadvantages and risks, so it is necessary to have appropriate countermeasures. Finally, Dr. Dang Xuan Thanh sincerely thanked the delegates for taking the time to attend and give comments to the seminar.
(Dr. Dang Xuan Thanh delivered a closing speech of the seminar)
The discussion went well.
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